IN many ways, the emergence of a two-coalition system in Malaysia – I prefer the term two-coalition system rather than a two-party system since both the government and the opposition are made up of different parties in their respective coalitions rather than single parties – is somewhat fortuitous.

This is actually the second attempt at forming a united opposition coalition to challenge the dominance of the Barisan Nasional (BN). The first attempt was in the formation of the Barisan Alternatif (BA) prior to the 1999 general elections. (Or one can go back even further to 1990 to the formation of the Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah and Gagasan Rakyat as the first attempt to form a united opposition coalition)

The BA fell apart partly because the distribution of power within the coalition made it untenable. An overly dominant PAS took the 1999 general election results as an endorsement for its Islamic state agenda rather than Malay dissatisfaction of the treatment of Anwar Ibrahim. This resulted in increasing pressure on the DAP which finally left the BA soon after the September 11th attacks in New York and Washington, DC. Keadilan, as PKR was known back then, could not provide an effective ‘balance’ between PAS and DAP because it had the smallest number of seats in the BA.

Better Power Balance

The balance of power within Pakatan Rakyat after March 2008 was much more advantageous to its survival. PKR won the most number of seats and because Anwar was now free, he could act as the ‘balancer’ between PAS as well as the DAP. The fact that Anwar is now officially the leader of the opposition by virtue of winning the Permatang Pauh by-election after his wife, Wan Azizah stepped down, has definitely been a boost to Pakatan’s unity, at least for now.

The fact that each party within the opposition has their own state or states, in PAS case, to manage has also helped the opposition coalition ‘experiment’ with different models of inter-party cooperation and conflict. PAS dominates the state government in Kedah with some representation from PKR, DAP dominates the state government in Penang with a more substantive representation from PKR, Perak was led by a PAS MB but with a strong DAP contingent supporting him while Selangor is a PKR led state with significant representation from DAP and PAS.

Without these fortuitous factors coming together – for example, if the DAP or PAS had won the largest number of parliamentary seats instead of PKR or if only Kedah and Penang had fallen into opposition hands but not Selangor and Perak – the relative stability and cohesiveness of Pakatan may not be what it appears to be today.

Strengths & Weaknesses

One year after March 8, 2008, one can begin to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging 2-coalition system, which I hope, will continue to exist, though perhaps not in its current form, for many years to come.

The BN recognises that part of the reason why it suffered in the 2008 general election was because of the unfulfilled electoral promises made by Pak Lah in 2004. It has tried to address some of these promises by introducing new legislation in parliament which created a new anti-corruption agency – the MACC – as well as a new body to oversee judicial appointments – the JAC. Even now, legislation is being introduced to provide some sort of an oversight structure over the police as part of Pak Lah’s promise to reform the police. But still, even when faced with the presence of the largest number of opposition MPs within the august halls of parliament, these reforms have been criticised by many as being insufficient and half-hearted.

On the opposition trenches, they are slowly searching for a common identity beyond that of just opposing what the BN represents. Anwar, is his capacity as the leader of the opposition, is slowly fashioning an opposition agenda which is reflective of some of policy changes that may materialize if the opposition ever takes over power at the federal level.

His platform of economic fairness and justice has come a long way since the party of ‘justice’ was first formed before the 1999 general election. He has promised to abolish NEP and replace it with an economic policy that favors the poor regardless of race, which was one of the two strands of the NEP but which was never implemented with this spirit.

With a real possibility of taking over government at the federal level, the DAP and PAS have been careful not to tread on each other’s shoes, especially in the more sensitive issues concerning race and religion. This is a positive development in so far as having an alternative coalition on the opposition bench that can agree on broad areas of policy despite having not insignificant ideological differences between the component parties.

Of course, it is not unexpected to see these differences manifest itself even within some of the opposition parties, including PKR. But nonetheless, some signs are more troubling than others. Zulkifli Nordin, the PKR MP for Kulim, made a ‘name’ for himself when he was among one of the most vocal protestors against the Bar Council forum that was organised to address issues faced by non-Malay families that had to do with religious conversions among their family members.

The MP for Kulim has continued to be an outspoken supporter for the ban on the use of the word ‘Allah’ for any scripture or text or publication that used or read by non-Muslims in Malaysia. One could argue that this is a demonstration of the fact that democracy and freedom of thought and speech is well and alive within the Pakatan coalition and their coalition members but if freedom of thought and speech are not available to all within Pakatan, then this ‘right’ seems to be only limited to certain points of view for certain people.

Growing Pains

There have definitely been signs of growing pains within the ranks of Pakatan at the national as well as at the state levels. At the same time, the non-UMNO coalition partners within the BN are still struggling to find their voice and identity within the BN framework after their disastrous electoral performance in March 2008. The 2-coalition system in Malaysia still has some way to go before it approaches anything that resembles that of a two-party system in a mature democracy.

Of course, this is partly due to the fact that most 2-party systems in mature democracies have one thing in common – that there has been alternation of power between the two parties in question. This has not happened in Malaysia, yet. If this does happen, there will be another period of adjustment as Pakatan has to contend with governing at the federal level and actually making hard policy decisions.

Meanwhile the BN and its component parties will have to adjust to life, for the first time, on the opposition bench without access to the resources of the federal government. The BN may not survive this move unscathed in that some of the smaller component parties may not find it politically advantageous to stay within the BN ‘fold’, especially if they are expected to bow to UMNO, without the benefits of access to federal resources.

The Next Elections

The period leading up to the next general election is riddled with uncertainty. The BN will be constantly challenged by the opposition and it will not stand back and sit idly in the face of these challenges. There will be reactions and counter reactions. Other forces will try to fill some of the power vacuum left open by the BN and the opposition, including NGOs as well as the various palaces, at the state and national levels.

As Christians, we have a role to play in shaping the national discourse of what we want our country to look like moving forward. Every person has their role to play in this discourse. Some have fewer responsibilities – such as carrying out the minimal act of registering to vote and then voting come election time.

Others have slightly more – perhaps being relatively well informed about the issues of the day and then being responsible opinion shapers among friends and families. And yet others may be more directly involved in the process as activists in NGOs and other social and religious organisations, or as community leaders, or as journalists, or as pastors and church leaders, or as members of political parties, or perhaps as political leaders at the state or national levels.

In these exciting times of defining what is possible, all we can ask for is to approach our responsibilities with prayer, discernment and diligence. The rest, we place in the hands of God Almighty.

Ong Kian Ming is a PhD Candidate in political science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail.com

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